Struggling Braves turn to Lowe in finale with Pirates
Baseball Betting Lines
09/08/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Pirates sure have been enjoying their role
of spoiler in this series and are now in position to sweep the Atlanta Braves
for the first time in over 16 years.
To do that they will have to solve Derek Lowe, who has won all nine of his
career starts versus Pittsburgh and will try to get Atlanta back on track in
the finale of a three-game set this evening at PNC Park.
The Braves' offense has plated just 12 runs over their last six games, a span
in which they have lost five times, and failed to cross the plate in last
night's 5-0 setback. Atlanta's third loss in a row dropped the club a half-
game behind Philadelphia for first place in the National League East, a spot
it had held solo since May 31.
"It happens," Braves manager Bobby Cox said on Atlanta's website after the
loss. "You can't do anything about it. You just got to worry about each game
as they come along."
Hopefully for Atlanta, Lowe's past success versus the Pirates carries over
tonight as his club aims to avoid its first sweep in this set since April 29-
May 1, 1994. Lowe has a 2.76 career earned run average in his nine starts
versus Pittsburgh and beat the franchise on May 28 with seven innings of one-
run ball.
The 37-year-old righty hasn't pitched since Aug. 29, though, due to lingering
soreness in his pitching elbow, but he did turn in a successful bullpen
session on Monday.
"Anytime you miss a start and have an MRI, it's not what you want," said Lowe
on Atlanta's website. "It reaffirms that what we did was the right way to go."
Lowe lasted just three innings in his last start, giving up five runs, six
hits and three walks. He is 11-12 with a 4.53 ERA this year.
While Lowe has never lost to the Pirates, teammate Tim Hudson's recent run of
good pitching versus the club did not carry over on Tuesday. Hudson was tagged
for four runs over 6 1/3 innings to suffer the loss as he allowed an earned
run against Pittsburgh for the first time since Aug. 23, 2006.
All five runs came in the seventh inning for the Pirates, as Delwyn Young hit
a two-run homer and Ronny Cedeno added a triple that brought home a pair of
runs. That offensive outburst backed James McDonald, who got the win after
tossing seven scoreless innings.
"Tim Hudson is a great competitor, and he's a great pitcher," said
Pittsburgh's Pedro Alvarez, who also drove in a run. We just always try to
grind it out and play until the end."
Pirates rookie Neil Walker added a double in the game to extend his hitting
streak to 14 games.
The Pirates have beaten the Braves just three times in eight meetings this
year and came into this set having lost eight of their last 11 to Atlanta.
Zach Duke will try to pitch Pittsburgh to the elusive sweep this evening and
is 2-0 over his last three starts, but has allowed four runs in each of his
last two.
The 27-year-old lasted just five innings in a victory over the Nationals on
Friday, getting charged with five hits and three walks while improving to 7-12
with a 5.24 ERA on the season.
Duke gave up just one unearned run versus the Braves at home on May 23,
getting a no-decision, but the southpaw was then lit up for seven runs and 12
hits five days later in a setback at Atlanta. He fell to 2-4 with a 4.58 ERA
in his career versus the Braves.
<< First-place Phils close out hard-fought set with Marlins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It wasn't easy, but the Philadelphia Phillies now lead the
National League East for the first time since late May.
Cole Hamels will try to keep his squad there as he aims for a third straight
victory in the finale of a fou
<< FCS championship game tickets to go on sale
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tickets to 2010 Football Championship
Subdivision title game will go on sale at 10 a.m. CT on Monday, Sept. 13.
The championship game will be played Jan. 7, 2011 at Pizza Hut Park in Frisco.
Tickets will be av
<< Padres go for sweep of LA
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres were in serious danger of falling out
of first place in the National League's West Division, but a couple of games
against the fading Los Angeles Dodgers seems to have gotten the surprising
squad back on
<< Rockies continue late playoff push against Reds
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the Colorado Rockies making a belated push for a
playoff spot, Carlos Gonzalez has been enhancing his credentials for a
possible National League MVP Award with his performance over the past few
weeks.
Gonzalez puts a
<< Twins close out homestand with Royals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins will close out another successful home
stand this evening, when the American League Central leaders take aim at a
series sweep of the Kansas City Royals at Target Field.
The Twins have gone 7-1 thus far
Tigers battle Bulldogs in SEC action >>
Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - SEC action begins on Thursday in Starkville
as the Mississippi State Bulldogs welcome the 21st-ranked Auburn Tigers to
town.
Auburn opened its season last weekend with a 52-26 victory over Arkansas
State.
Ranked SEC foes lock horns in Columbia >>
Columbia, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Richt leads his 22nd-ranked Georgia
Bulldogs into an SEC battle with Steve Spurrier's 24th-ranked South Carolina
Gamecocks in Columbia this weekend.
"Our guys are focused on South Carolina right now," sai
LSU visits Vanderbilt in SEC lidlifter >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Vanderbilt Commodores are coming off a
highly-disappointing week-one loss, and they will open SEC play on Saturday
against the 19th-ranked LSU Tigers, who are fresh off a drama-filled victory.
LSU took on
Hurricanes blow into Columbus to battle Buckeyes >>
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A much-anticipated matchup between the second-
ranked Ohio State Buckeyes and the 12th-ranked Miami-Florida Hurricanes will
ensue in Columbus on Saturday afternoon.
As expected, Miami cruised to victory over F
Idaho hits road for test against No. 6 Nebraska >>
Lincoln, NE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off a 49-10 thrashing of Western Kentucky
in last week's season opener, the sixth-ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers figure to
be challenged a bit more this Saturday as they welcome the Idaho Vandals to
Memorial St
Pacific-10 Conference odds
Teams that should be in: Stanford
 Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.
Should be in:
Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.
| Southeastern Conference odds |
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State
 It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.
Work left to do:
Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.
Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.
Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.
Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile. |
For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com
Additional sports lines can be found at: www.Sportsbooks.com
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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