Familiar foes do battle in Winnipeg
Football Betting Lines
09/08/2010 -
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the second time in as many weeks the
Saskatchewan Roughriders and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers find themselves pitted
against each other on the gridiron, this time at Canad Inns Stadium on Sunday
afternoon.
In Week 10 action, the Roughriders scored nine straight points to open the
fourth quarter at home and that was enough to put the team over the top in a
27-23 final versus Winnipeg. The victory for Saskatchewan continued the trend
of alternating wins and losses by the club over the last seven games.
The Roughriders scaled back their running game and instead focused on putting
the ball in the air as Darian Durant converted 23-of-35 passes for 301 yards,
yet he failed to put one in the end zone, was intercepted once and sacked
three times. However, when Saskatchewan did opt to keep the ball on the ground
the end results were nothing short of amazing as Durant gained 43 yards on six
carries and scored once and Wes Cates added a pair of majors, even though he
gained just 15 yards on seven attempts.
Over on the other side Fred Reid was limited to just 43 yards on 13 carries,
but still he made his way over the goal line in the setback for the Blue
Bombers. Buck Pierce was back under center for the club and hit on 21-of-29
passes for 243 yards, but like Durant he could not get one of his passes into
the end zone. Steven Jyles, who was brought in to sub for Pierce, completed
all four of his passes for 43 yards and a score in the losing effort.
Keeping Winnipeg signal-callers on their toes was James Patrick who notched
yet another interception for the Roughriders, returning it 44 yards on the
first play of the second quarter to later set up the first major of the game.
Patrick now has a total of seven interceptions on the season, easily the top
number by any defender in the league entering play this week. Unfortunately,
the defender isn't getting much support in that area from the rest of his
teammates because through 10 games Saskatchewan has a total of only 11 picks
and is currently breaking even in the turnover department as a result.
As frustrating as it might be for Patrick to see his team with a turnover
differential of zero at the moment, it is still better than Winnipeg which is
a minus six due to the fact that the Bombers have only 17 takeaways thus far.
The biggest issue for Winnipeg has been maintaining possession of the ball
because at the moment it is tied with Toronto for the most lost fumbles with
11.
Jyles and Pierce, the primary gunslingers for the Blue Bombers, have done all
they can to try and keep the team competitive thus far with their combined 14
TD passes and just six interceptions. The team as a whole is completing 63.5
percent of its pass attempts and putting that altogether gives the unit an
efficiency rating of 99.6, which is currently third in the conference. No
matter which signal-caller is under center for the club, the main option down
the field remains Terrence Edwards who is second in the league in receiving
yardage with 778, averaging almost 18 yards per catch while reeling in seven
TDs for the squad.
Durant has been slinging the ball all over the field every chance he gets for
the Roughriders, which is why he leads the league in passing yards with 2,775
after nine games. However, Durant has also had more than his share of mistakes
and is currently tied with Calgary's Henry Burris for the most interceptions
with 13. In defense of Burris, he has tossed his picks while also converting a
league-leading 21 majors, compared to just 11 TDs for Durant.
In his last three appearances against Winnipeg, Durant has averaged almost 260
ypg through the air, has thrown for a pair of touchdowns and also logged two
majors as a runner in order to keep the Roughriders more than competitive in
the series. Helping to balance out the offensive attack, Cates has been
destroying the Bombers defense in the last four meetings with a total of eight
touchdowns on the ground and another through the air, even though his overall
yardage hasn't been all that spectacular.
With respect to the all-time, regular-season series between the clubs,
Winnipeg is ahead by a count of 112-83-3 dating back to 1945. Thanks to the
victory last week the Roughriders have now taken five in a row and six of the
last seven meetings with Winnipeg.
<< Als seek return to win column in clash with Tiger-Cats
Hamilton, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Alouettes continue to compete
without the services of quarterback Anthony Calvillo as the team challenges
the Hamilton Tiger-Cats this weekend at Ivor Wynne Stadium.
Calvillo, who suffered a chest
<< A's hope to build a win streak versus Mariners
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - At seven games off the pace in the American League West
Division, time is running out on the Oakland Athletics and their hopes for a
postseason berth. The A's will try to get a winning streak going tonight in
the finale of a
<< Marlins to skip Johnson's next start
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Florida Marlins ace Josh Johnson will miss
his next scheduled start because of shoulder and back pain.
Johnson was slated to pitch Friday against Washington, but the Marlins now
plan to start Alex Sana
<< 2010 World Basketball Championship update - September 8th
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
QUARTERFINALS
Spain vs. Serbia, 11 a.m.
Slovenia vs. Turkey, 2 p.m.
<< Big-time programs square off huge Week 2 matchups
JoePa visits the Bear's house. The 'Canes blow into the Horseshoe for a rematch of the 2002 national championship game. Florida State's first big game post-Bowden takes place in Norman, Okla., a rematch of the 2000 national title game.The second wee
Lions seek second straight upset in clash with Argos >>
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off a huge upset win against the
Montreal Alouettes, the British Columbia Lions shoot for back-to-back
victories for the first time in 2010 as they entertain the Toronto Argonauts
on Saturday afternoon at
Stampeders and Eskimos meet for second time this week >>
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Friday night brings out the best and the worst
in the Canadian Football League as the slumping Edmonton Eskimos entertain the
high-flying Calgary Stampeders in a Western Division showdown at Commonwealth
Stadium.
Mets to wrap up long trip with matinee against Nats >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Apparently, winning four straight games just isn't the
Washington Nationals' thing.
After failing to win more than three games in a row for the seventh time this
season, Washington instead seeks a series victory over the N
Red Sox, Rays ready for rubber match at Fenway >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Wakefield gets the call on short notice this evening
when the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays play the rubber match of their
three-game series at Fenway Park.
After getting blown out in the opener of this set
Orioles aim for rare sweep of Yanks in the Bronx >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles have been the worst team in the
American League all season. Today, though, the Orioles will have a chance to
do something against the best team in baseball that they haven't done in more
than 2
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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